"in nonlinear, highly networked systems, a more accurate estimation of risk [is] long-tailed distribution." #readingToday

_The study of complexity has shown that in nonlinear, highly networked systems, a more accurate estimation of risk would be a so-called "long-tailed" distribution. Figure 1(b) shows a hypothetical long-tailed distribution of risk (here, only the "loss" side is shown). The longer non-zero "tail" (far right-hand side) of this distribution shows that the probability of a catastrophic loss is significantly higher than for a system obeying a normal distribution. If risk models in 2008 had employed long-tailed rather than normal distributions, the possibility of an "extreme event"—here, "catastrophic loss"—would have be judged more likely. _